Asset prices
In the last decade US stocks are up 225% which by itself is good for shareholders but they are strongly overvalued now based on Buffet Indicator. Gold is up 211% due to a hedge against inflation (heck, Central Banks world over are buying the metal). What does the future portend? Definitely a correction for stocks but gold…?
Upward mobility
In 1999, about 33% of households earned $52,000 (today’s equivalent of $100,000 when inflation adjusted). As of 2023, about 41% of US households earned $100,000 or more. So in a quarter century, we have seen roughly an 8 percentage point increase in upward mobility for these income earners. Almost all income groups have seen upward mobility. Searching online (US Census, Statista…) provides more such nuggets of information.
Fundamentalism
There has been a lot of push back against Islamic fundamentalism worldwide and it is about time. But fundamentalism needs to be looked at based on how fundamentalists treat or mistreat their own people. That keeps the conversation apples to apples and more objective. Islamic countries are rife with autocracy, severe gender discrimination, torture, and murder in the name of Islamic justice. In this regard, all those Islamic sympathizers in the west need to focus on fixing that elephant in the room before they feign righteous indignation upon non-Muslim countries for relatively fewer incidences.
In Birmingham, England there are Muslim communities that impose “voluntary” community laws. Why? Especially when English common law is much more humane and fair in its process. If Islamic laws are really better, why has most of the world adopted English common law (and freely so) and not other forms of justice?
Stagflation
Tariffs and the man: In the past few months, we have started working more for the same dollar. Our dollar buys less than it did a few months ago. We are seeing an uptick in unemployment. Dear world, we have a numbskull in the White House.
Bogle
There is only one man in the US who has had a relatively enormous effect in uplifting the common man’s financial situation - Jack Bogle with his index funds at Vanguard. All the others either handed out really tiny fish to mostly undeserving folks, or taught people how to fish with moderate effect. Bogle in that metaphor rented out ridiculously inexpensive fishing rods, attracted all the big fish, and walked the common man to the spot for some easy fishing.
Gold priced to soar
It all begins with an idea.
I believe gold will continue to soar for the foreseeable future given economic uncertainty and fiscal issues worldwide
Fiscal prudence…is dead
It all begins with an idea.
We are in economically uncertain times world over. China, Europe, Japan, the Middle East, the US are hurting. They have taken on too much debt at the sovereign level or running large annual fiscal deficits. In the US, personal savings rate is a myth. Even the well to do upper middle class (with double incomes) seem to be living in a world that is only filled with happy scenarios. I know of folks with 800K homes, a Tesla model Y, home renovations…all financed by your friendly neighborhood bank. What happens when even one of them loses their job?
US Corporate Excellence
It all begins with an idea.
Here is a priceless nugget: the top 500 US companies performed just about at the same rate as the entire 3561 companies publicly traded in the US. For that to happen the bottom 3061 companies are performing at the same rate as the top 500! That tells you the depth of excellent execution.
Health Premium
It all begins with an idea.
Exercise is the lowest health premium one can pay